Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
